2011 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

14·28

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.058
  • 44.0%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.048
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.076
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.53CPOE-1.12
  • 38.3%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.48
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:28514Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:0130Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:28470Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 9:53839Missed field goal7–0
NYGQ1 4:34525Punt7–0
WASQ1 1:571276Touchdown7–7
NYGQ2 11:25519Punt7–7
WASQ2 9:1135Punt7–7
NYGQ2 7:32885Touchdown14–7
WASQ2 2:48580Touchdown14–14
NYGQ2 0:3710End of half14–14
NYGQ3 15:0035Opp touchdown14–21
NYGQ3 13:0335Punt14–21
WASQ3 10:49528Punt14–21
NYGQ3 8:34760Turnover on downs14–21
WASQ3 5:11719Punt14–21
NYGQ3 0:373-5Punt14–21
WASQ4 14:023-18Turnover14–21
NYGQ4 13:0237Missed field goal14–21
WASQ4 10:571060Touchdown14–28
NYGQ4 5:04515Punt14–28
WASQ4 3:14517Punt14–28
NYGQ4 1:06415End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning18/3226801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw13443.41
Brandon Jacobs6294.80
Eli Manning122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks7111220
Jake Ballard23590
Mario Manningham47490
Domenik Hixon24210
Ahmad Bradshaw12100
D.J. Ware1130
Brandon Jacobs0100
Victor Cruz0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman21/3430520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower24502.11
Roy Helu122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis561050
Santana Moss68760
Jabar Gaffney37541
Tim Hightower33250
Anthony Armstrong26241
Chris Cooley23210
Logan Paulsen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36