2011 · Week 1 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.058
- 44.0%Success rate41.9%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.048
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.53CPOE-1.12
- 38.3%Third-down rate36.9%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.48
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/32 | 268 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 7 | 11 | 122 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 2 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 21/34 | 305 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 24 | 50 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 5 | 6 | 105 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 6 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 2 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Chris Cooley | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36