Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/46 | 304 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.