Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutKevin BossTEKnee· DNP
- OutLouis MurphyWRGroin· DNP
- OutMichael MitchellSKnee· DNP
- ProbableChaz SchilensWRKnee· Full
- ProbableChris JohnsonCBGroin· Full
- ProbableDarryl BlackstockLBConcussion· Full
- ProbableDeMarcus Van DykeCBRibs· Full
- ProbableDerek HaganWRCalf· Full
- ProbableTaiwan JonesRBFoot· Full
Broncos
- OutD.J. WilliamsLBElbow· DNP
- OutDemaryius ThomasWRAchilles· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutMarcus ThomasDEShoulder· DNP
- OutTy WarrenDTTriceps· DNP
- ProbableBrodrick BunkleyDTKnee· Full
- ProbableChris KuperGToe· Full
- ProbableDavid BrutonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableMatt WillisWRToe· Full
- ProbableQuinton CarterSHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:00 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:50 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 9:55 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:48 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:02 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 13:28 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:23 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q2 11:14 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 8:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q2 6:27 | 8 | 24 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:12 | 10 | 40 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| DEN | Q2 1:27 | 5 | 33 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:24 | 3 | 16 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 16–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:31 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 16–10 |
| DEN | Q3 6:51 | 12 | 47 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| LV | Q3 1:55 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 16–13 |
| DEN | Q3 0:15 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 16–13 |
| LV | Q4 14:11 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| DEN | Q4 12:33 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 23–13 |
| LV | Q4 9:17 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 23–13 |
| DEN | Q4 7:39 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| LV | Q4 3:43 | 6 | 32 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/46 | 304 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.