Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. STL are 3-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 14/32 | 187 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 122 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 11 | 97 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 12 | 102 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.