Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Eagles
- DoubtfulVince YoungQBHamstring· DNP
- ProbableAsante SamuelCBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableAntonio DixonDTBack· Full
- ProbableClay HarborTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableDanny WatkinsGFoot· Full
- ProbableJaiquawn JarrettSQuadricep· Full
- ProbableJuqua ParkerDECalf· Full
- ProbableNate AllenSKnee· Full
- ProbableSteve SmithWRKnee· Full
- ProbableTodd HerremansTBack· Full
- ProbableTrevor LawsDTHip· Full
- ProbableWinston JusticeTKnee· Full
Rams
- QuestionableMichael HoomanawanuiTECalf· DNP
- ProbableEugene SimsDEoblique· Limited
- ProbableJames HallDEBack· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.8 points. STL are 4-12-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LA | Q1 11:22 | 1 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 11:14 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:13 | 10 | 33 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:01 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q1 1:07 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:03 | 11 | 37 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| PHI | Q2 10:06 | 10 | 66 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LA | Q2 5:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–10 |
| PHI | Q2 3:40 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 42 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| PHI | Q3 9:14 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| LA | Q3 5:41 | 10 | 38 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| PHI | Q3 1:09 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 24–13 |
| LA | Q4 14:16 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 24–13 |
| PHI | Q4 10:46 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 31–13 |
| LA | Q4 8:46 | 8 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 31–13 |
| PHI | Q4 6:04 | 6 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 31–13 |
| LA | Q4 2:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 31–13 |
| PHI | Q4 1:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 14/32 | 187 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 122 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 11 | 97 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 12 | 102 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.