Closing spread
SF -6
Total
38
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.009
- 38.9%Success rate40.8%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.091
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.03CPOE-0.45
- 33.6%Third-down rate29.6%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.31Points / drive1.87
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 21/37 | 197 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/20 | 124 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 59 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76