2011 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

17·33

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

38

Model margin

+3.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.009
  • 38.9%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.091
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.03CPOE-0.45
  • 33.6%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.87
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:00731Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:17311Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:053-1Punt0–0
SFQ1 5:2735Punt0–0
SEAQ1 3:2934Punt0–0
SFQ1 1:22418Field goal0–3
SEAQ2 14:1047Turnover0–3
SFQ2 12:1933Field goal0–6
SEAQ2 11:2230Punt0–6
SFQ2 9:18850Field goal0–9
SEAQ2 2:403-2Punt0–9
SFQ2 1:44741Touchdown0–16
SEAQ2 0:1210Turnover0–16
SFQ3 15:0035Punt0–16
SEAQ3 13:261056Touchdown7–16
SFQ3 10:203-3Punt7–16
SEAQ3 8:4638Punt7–16
SFQ3 7:1038Punt7–16
SEAQ3 4:471340Field goal10–16
SFQ4 14:551473Field goal10–19
SEAQ4 5:54680Touchdown17–25
SFQ4 3:5600Touchdown17–26
SEAQ4 3:453-7Opp touchdown17–33
SEAQ4 2:4685Turnover17–33
SFQ4 0:5500End of half17–33

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson21/3719721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch12332.80
Tarvaris Jackson4133.30
Ben Obomanu11313.00
Justin Forsett331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin46831
Mike Williams45340
Zach Miller24190
Marshawn Lynch22140
Ben Obomanu26120
Anthony McCoy22120
Justin Forsett3580
Golden Tate1581
Leon Washington1270

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith15/2012400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore22592.70
Alex Smith7223.11
Kendall Hunter242.00
Ted Ginn100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis56470
Josh Morgan22280
Braylon Edwards35270
Frank Gore34190
Michael Crabtree1240
Delanie Walker11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.76