Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.089
- 41.7%Success rate39.5%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.19CPOE-6.16
- 35.5%Third-down rate30.8%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.55Points / drive1.16
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 27/41 | 332 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 9 | 136 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 10 | 14 | 124 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Colin Cochart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 15/25 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 28 | 101 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 5 | 9 | 113 | 2 |
| Matt Willis | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.13