2011 · Week 2

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

22·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.7%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.19CPOE-6.16
  • 35.5%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.55Points / drive1.16
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2024 · W17DEN @ CIN24–30CIN
2021 · W15CIN @ DEN15–10CIN
2018 · W13DEN @ CIN24–10DEN
2017 · W11CIN @ DEN20–17CIN
2016 · W3DEN @ CIN29–17DEN
2015 · W16CIN @ DEN17–20DEN
2014 · W16DEN @ CIN28–37CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DEN
DENQ1 15:001585Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 6:30529Punt0–7
DENQ1 3:1233Punt0–7
CINQ1 2:12523Punt0–7
DENQ2 14:455-2Punt0–7
CINQ2 12:32519Punt0–7
DENQ2 9:53119Turnover0–7
CINQ2 9:35624Field goal3–7
DENQ2 6:331564Field goal3–10
CINQ2 0:1200End of half3–10
CINQ3 15:0030Punt3–10
DENQ3 13:09544Touchdown3–17
CINQ3 10:57656Field goal6–17
DENQ3 8:5439Punt6–17
CINQ3 6:50877Touchdown12–17
DENQ3 3:3633Turnover12–17
CINQ3 2:1839Field goal15–17
DENQ3 1:05580Touchdown15–24
CINQ4 13:30480Touchdown22–24
DENQ4 11:1735Punt22–24
CINQ4 9:43720Punt22–24
DENQ4 6:4131Punt22–24
CINQ4 5:3349Turnover on downs22–24
DENQ4 3:0449Punt22–24
CINQ4 2:251038Turnover on downs22–24
DENQ4 0:2300End of half22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton27/4133220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson16593.70
Bernard Scott2105.00
Andy Dalton231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson491360
A.J. Green10141241
Andre Caldwell34271
Cedric Benson33170
Jordan Shipley33150
Jermaine Gresham2580
Brian Leonard2250
Colin Cochart0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton15/2519520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee281013.61
Lance Ball6284.70
Kyle Orton1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker591132
Matt Willis24220
Eddie Royal23180
Daniel Fells1290
Willis McGahee1250
Julius Thomas1150
Lance Ball0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.35
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.13