2011 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

10·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.069
  • 41.4%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.118
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -5.82CPOE+0.03
  • 32.0%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.31
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00919Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:50832Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ1 6:52642Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 2:55921Field goal3–3
SEAQ2 12:48415Punt3–3
ARIQ2 10:35878Touchdown10–3
SEAQ2 7:29731Punt10–3
ARIQ2 3:1239Punt10–3
SEAQ2 1:51721Field goal10–6
ARIQ2 0:43532Turnover10–6
SEAQ2 0:0010Turnover10–6
ARIQ3 15:00520Punt10–6
SEAQ3 11:571477Touchdown10–13
ARIQ3 5:5735Punt10–13
SEAQ3 4:0132Punt10–13
ARIQ3 3:17517Punt10–13
SEAQ3 0:58314Punt10–13
ARIQ4 14:4839Punt10–13
SEAQ4 13:3035Punt10–13
ARIQ4 11:501045Missed field goal10–13
SEAQ4 5:20526Punt10–13
ARIQ4 2:57928Turnover10–13
SEAQ4 1:0439Punt10–13
ARIQ4 0:35328End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb25/3925212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfonso Smith17543.20
Chester Taylor8202.50
Kevin Kolb3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald58641
Todd Heap610610
Early Doucet56500
Andre Roberts46380
Alfonso Smith35210
Chester Taylor12120

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson18/3117101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch19733.80
Leon Washington3299.70
Tarvaris Jackson4205.01
Eddie Williams221.00
Justin Forsett100.00
Doug Baldwin1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice8101090
Doug Baldwin24230
Golden Tate23150
Ben Obomanu22120
Zach Miller2390
Marshawn Lynch1320
Justin Forsett1310
Mike Williams0100
Leon Washington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.11