Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.069
- 41.4%Success rate38.9%
- -0.076EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.118
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- -5.82CPOE+0.03
- 32.0%Third-down rate33.6%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.38Points / drive1.31
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 25/39 | 252 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Smith | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 6 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 18/31 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 73 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Eddie Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 8 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.11