2011 · Week 3 · Division

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

26·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Donovan McNabb

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.054
  • 44.2%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.101EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.026
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.23CPOE-5.80
  • 35.2%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.60
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
MINQ1 15:001163Field goal0–3
DETQ1 9:383-1Punt0–3
MINQ1 7:55815Field goal0–6
DETQ1 5:193-6Punt0–6
MINQ1 3:26945Punt0–6
DETQ2 14:191038Punt0–6
MINQ2 9:05667Touchdown0–13
DETQ2 6:01626Punt0–13
MINQ2 3:47310Punt0–13
DETQ2 1:443-6Punt0–13
MINQ2 0:50313Touchdown0–20
DETQ2 0:0900End of half0–20
DETQ3 15:00618Punt0–20
MINQ3 12:2335Punt0–20
DETQ3 11:01452Touchdown7–20
MINQ3 9:223-8Punt7–20
DETQ3 8:12841Field goal10–20
MINQ3 3:1439Punt10–20
DETQ3 1:48584Touchdown17–20
MINQ4 14:55630Turnover on downs17–20
DETQ4 11:331151Field goal20–20
MINQ4 5:203-4Punt20–20
DETQ4 4:13410Field goal23–20
MINQ4 2:30852Field goal23–23
DETQ4 1:113-7Punt23–23
MINQ4 0:11124End of half23–23
DETOT459Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford32/4637820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best12141.20
Jerome Harrison284.00
Keiland Williams231.50
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00
Maurice Morris2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Pettigrew11131120
Calvin Johnson7111082
Jahvid Best57740
Titus Young48510
Maurice Morris12140
Nate Burleson22120
Tony Scheffler1140
Jerome Harrison1230

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb22/3621110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson17784.61
Percy Harvin24120.50
Donovan McNabb2115.50
Toby Gerhart221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Jenkins911880
Percy Harvin35470
Kyle Rudolph33390
Adrian Peterson45190
Visanthe Shiancoe1281
Devin Aromashodu1250
Toby Gerhart1250
Jimmy Kleinsasser0200
Bernard Berrian0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

6.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.64