Closing spread
DET -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.054
- 44.2%Success rate39.2%
- +0.101EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.23CPOE-5.80
- 35.2%Third-down rate38.8%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.98Points / drive1.60
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/46 | 378 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 12 | 14 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pettigrew | 11 | 13 | 112 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 11 | 108 | 2 |
| Jahvid Best | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/36 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 9 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
6.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.64