Closing spread
GB -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.230EPA / play-0.110
- 48.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.405EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +8.47CPOE-2.53
- 48.7%Third-down rate32.9%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 2.85Points / drive1.37
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/38 | 297 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 0 |
| James Starks | 11 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 9 | 10 | 119 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 7 | 8 | 85 | 3 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/37 | 302 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 9 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 5 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.42