2011 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.230EPA / play-0.110
  • 48.2%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.405EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +8.47CPOE-2.53
  • 48.7%Third-down rate32.9%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.37
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:00980Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 11:25623Punt7–0
GBQ1 7:37525Punt7–0
CHIQ1 4:2110Turnover7–0
GBQ1 4:1231Punt7–0
CHIQ1 2:1931Punt7–0
GBQ1 0:43755Touchdown14–0
CHIQ2 12:00785Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 8:121071Field goal17–7
CHIQ2 1:51673Field goal17–10
GBQ2 0:49310End of half17–10
CHIQ3 15:003-9Punt17–10
GBQ3 13:2734Punt17–10
CHIQ3 11:553-2Punt17–10
GBQ3 11:01753Field goal20–10
CHIQ3 6:323-8Punt20–10
GBQ3 5:4335Punt20–10
CHIQ3 4:05622Punt20–10
GBQ3 1:03644Touchdown27–10
CHIQ4 12:49215Turnover27–10
GBQ4 12:021-8Turnover27–16
CHIQ4 11:56132Touchdown27–17
GBQ4 11:46430Turnover27–17
CHIQ4 9:27514Punt27–17
GBQ4 7:05616Punt27–17
CHIQ4 3:55520Turnover on downs27–17
GBQ4 2:1536Punt27–17
CHIQ4 0:51325End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/3829731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant17925.40
James Starks1150.50
Aaron Rodgers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings9101190
Jermichael Finley78853
Jordy Nelson35400
James Jones46240
Randall Cobb11130
James Starks3490
Donald Driver0200
Ryan Grant0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/3730222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Cutler3113.70
Matt Forte920.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox49840
Matt Forte78800
Devin Hester35620
Kellen Davis12321
Dane Sanzenbacher57271
Sam Hurd11170
Roy Williams0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.42