Closing spread
SD -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 17/24 | 176 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Keary Colbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.