Closing spread
SD -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutJon BaldwinWRThumb· Limited
- QuestionableWallace GilberryDENeck· Full
- ProbableTamba HaliLBAnkle· Full
Chargers
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- DoubtfulBob SandersSKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulCorey LiugetDEAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulMalcom FloydWRGroin· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEFoot· DNP
- DNPJonas MoutonLBShoulder
- ProbableQuentin JammerCBIllness· DNP
- ProbableMike TolbertRBCalf· Full
- ProbableVincent JacksonWRAbdomen· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:54 | 10 | 42 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:08 | 4 | 10 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 4:52 | 15 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 12:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:47 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 7:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:59 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 5:41 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:37 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:28 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q3 13:01 | 6 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 11:21 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| KC | Q3 7:32 | 20 | 63 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q4 12:57 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| KC | Q4 8:03 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 4:58 | 7 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 17–20 |
| KC | Q4 1:26 | 2 | 23 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:55 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 17/24 | 176 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Keary Colbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.