2011 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

29·16

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -9

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.053
  • 44.0%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.077
  • -0.143EPA / rush+0.010
  • 9.4%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +1.53CPOE+0.41
  • 38.3%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.91
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
PHIQ1 14:061040Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 8:47673Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 6:04718Punt7–0
NYGQ1 2:15382Touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 0:491477Field goal14–3
NYGQ2 7:47751Turnover on downs14–3
PHIQ2 5:15760Touchdown14–10
NYGQ2 1:543-1Punt14–10
PHIQ2 1:12436Field goal14–13
PHIQ3 15:00210Punt14–13
PHIQ3 14:0514Punt14–13
PHIQ3 13:3110Punt14–13
PHIQ3 13:2500Punt14–13
NYGQ3 13:17630Punt14–13
PHIQ3 9:511475Field goal14–16
NYGQ3 0:593-3Punt14–16
PHIQ4 14:20527Turnover on downs14–16
NYGQ4 11:37854Touchdown22–16
PHIQ4 8:0710Turnover22–16
NYGQ4 8:001051Touchdown29–16
PHIQ4 3:32729Turnover29–16
NYGQ4 1:4900End of half29–16

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning16/2325440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw15865.70
Brandon Jacobs7192.70
Eli Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz351102
Ahmad Bradshaw55531
Brandon Jacobs23421
Hakeem Nicks35250
Jake Ballard11150
Brandon Stokley1270
Travis Beckum1120

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick16/2317601
Mike Kafka4/73502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy241285.31
Mike Vick7314.40
Ronnie Brown362.00
DeSean Jackson133.00
Dion Lewis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin57690
Jason Avant45330
DeSean Jackson26300
Steve Smith25270
Clay Harbor11170
LeSean McCoy33130
Brent Celek2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.73