Closing spread
PHI -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play+0.053
- 44.0%Success rate47.0%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.077
- -0.143EPA / rush+0.010
- 9.4%Explosive rate12.1%
- +1.53CPOE+0.41
- 38.3%Third-down rate42.0%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.84Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/23 | 254 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 5 | 110 | 2 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/23 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Kafka | 4/7 | 35 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.73