2011 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.047
- 41.9%Success rate45.1%
- -0.048EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.12CPOE+4.08
- 36.9%Third-down rate39.2%
- 47.2%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.48Points / drive1.79
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 22/37 | 250 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 5 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/36 | 255 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 14 | 115 | 8.2 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Laurent Robinson | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52