2011 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

16·18

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.047
  • 41.9%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.048EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.12CPOE+4.08
  • 36.9%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 47.2%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.79
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
WASQ1 15:00942Field goal3–0
DALQ1 10:06944Field goal3–3
WASQ1 5:3439Punt3–3
DALQ1 3:283-2Turnover3–3
WASQ1 1:5731Field goal6–3
DALQ1 0:2134Punt6–3
WASQ2 14:2210Turnover6–3
DALQ2 14:1239Field goal6–6
WASQ2 12:20419Punt6–6
DALQ2 10:4535Punt6–6
WASQ2 9:45643Missed field goal6–6
DALQ2 6:22759Field goal6–9
WASQ2 2:25848Field goal9–9
DALQ3 15:001035Turnover9–9
WASQ3 9:31976Touchdown16–9
DALQ3 4:00657Field goal16–12
WASQ3 0:1930Punt16–12
DALQ4 14:45531Punt16–12
WASQ4 13:03418Punt16–12
DALQ4 11:26974Field goal16–15
WASQ4 6:58617Punt16–15
DALQ4 3:44860Field goal16–18
WASQ4 1:47525Turnover16–18
DALQ4 0:2800End of half16–18

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman22/3725011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower14412.90
Roy Helu5153.00
Rex Grossman166.00
Chris Cooley231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss58700
Jabar Gaffney56600
Chris Cooley45410
Tim Hightower56391
Fred Davis13230
Roy Helu22170
Terrence Austin0400

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/3625501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones141158.20
DeMarco Murray263.00
Tashard Choice750.70
Tony Romo2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant44630
Jason Witten69600
Laurent Robinson35490
Felix Jones33400
Kevin Ogletree37190
Martellus Bennett1360
Tashard Choice1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.52