Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.047
- 44.2%Success rate45.1%
- +0.101EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.23CPOE+4.08
- 35.2%Third-down rate39.2%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.98Points / drive1.79
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/43 | 240 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 13 | 96 | 2 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 34/47 | 331 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent Robinson | 7 | 10 | 116 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 8 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 5 | 37 | 2 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 5 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.57