Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 17/26 | 167 | 0 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 3/4 | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeron Mastrud | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.