Closing spread
DET -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play+0.036
- 39.3%Success rate44.2%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.101
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.53CPOE+1.23
- 32.9%Third-down rate35.2%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.37Points / drive1.98
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 28/38 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 22 | 116 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 6 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Johnny Knox | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/26 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 12 | 163 | 13.6 | 1 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 6 | 130 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Titus Young | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35