2011 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

13·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.110EPA / play+0.036
  • 39.3%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.101
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.53CPOE+1.23
  • 32.9%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.98
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00620Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:1339Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:2938Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:051323Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 0:06375Touchdown0–7
CHIQ2 14:11957Field goal3–7
DETQ2 8:18528Punt3–7
CHIQ2 6:01898Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 1:11523Turnover10–7
CHIQ2 0:3100End of half10–7
CHIQ3 15:0033Punt10–7
DETQ3 12:49752Touchdown10–14
CHIQ3 9:55744Punt10–20
DETQ3 5:32188Touchdown10–21
CHIQ3 5:2036Punt10–21
DETQ3 3:48734Punt10–21
CHIQ4 14:524-1Punt10–21
DETQ4 11:51415Punt10–21
CHIQ4 9:101052Field goal13–21
DETQ4 4:07752Field goal13–24
CHIQ4 1:56969End of half13–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler28/3824910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte221165.30
Marion Barber133.00
Jay Cutler231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dane Sanzenbacher610640
Sam Hurd45500
Matt Forte47350
Devin Hester57320
Kellen Davis33251
Johnny Knox22170
Roy Williams11110
Matt Spaeth1180
Marion Barber1170

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/2621921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best1216313.61
Keiland Williams471.80
Stefan Logan166.00
Nate Burleson242.00
Matthew Stafford111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson561301
Brandon Pettigrew45391
Titus Young24140
Tony Scheffler11120
Jahvid Best4490
Maurice Morris1180
Nate Burleson1460
Will Heller1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.35