2011 · Week 5

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

28·24

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Curtis Painter

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapColts
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.129
  • 38.8%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.096
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.182
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -1.61CPOE-4.66
  • 35.7%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 38.2%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.05
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. IND are 13-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–IND
INDQ1 15:001390Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 7:36736Punt0–7
INDQ1 3:4546Punt0–7
KCQ1 1:283-6Punt0–7
INDQ2 14:52745Field goal0–10
KCQ2 12:2334Punt0–16
INDQ2 11:23167Touchdown0–17
KCQ2 11:1337Punt0–17
INDQ2 9:4139Punt0–17
KCQ2 8:08670Touchdown7–17
INDQ2 5:11975Touchdown7–24
KCQ2 1:09680Touchdown14–24
INDQ2 0:1300End of half14–24
KCQ3 15:001145Punt14–24
INDQ3 8:5539Punt14–24
KCQ3 6:471293Touchdown21–24
INDQ3 0:40618Punt21–24
KCQ4 12:59425Punt21–24
INDQ4 10:5933Punt21–24
KCQ4 9:541049Touchdown28–24
INDQ4 5:15734Turnover on downs28–24
KCQ4 2:24535End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel21/2925740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jackie Battle191196.30
Thomas Jones10555.50
Matt Cassel5122.40
Dexter McCluster482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe7111282
Steve Breaston45502
Keary Colbert22240
Jackie Battle22210
Dexter McCluster12100
Terrance Copper1190
Leonard Pope2380
Thomas Jones2370

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Curtis Painter15/2727720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown8384.80
Delone Carter12221.81
Joseph Addai6193.20
Curtis Painter1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon581252
Reggie Wayne47770
Austin Collie22500
Delone Carter23120
Dallas Clark1570
Joseph Addai1160
Anthony Gonzalez0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.00