Closing spread
IND -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.129
- 38.8%Success rate39.3%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.182
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.8%
- -1.61CPOE-4.66
- 35.7%Third-down rate34.4%
- 38.2%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
- 1.06Points / drive1.05
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 21/29 | 257 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 19 | 119 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 7 | 11 | 128 | 2 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 5 | 50 | 2 |
| Keary Colbert | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 15/27 | 277 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Curtis Painter | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 8 | 125 | 2 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.00