Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
51
Model margin
-1.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.198EPA / play+0.102
- 51.4%Success rate44.8%
- +0.305EPA / dropback+0.093
- +0.014EPA / rush+0.115
- 10.8%Explosive rate12.3%
- +7.27CPOE-0.04
- 58.6%Third-down rate38.7%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.96Points / drive2.08
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/45 | 359 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 12 | 129 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/31 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 9 | 115 | 12.8 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Legedu Naanee | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.03