2011 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

30·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NO -6.5

Total

51

Model margin

-1.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.198EPA / play+0.102
  • 51.4%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.305EPA / dropback+0.093
  • +0.014EPA / rush+0.115
  • 10.8%Explosive rate12.3%
  • +7.27CPOE-0.04
  • 58.6%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.96Points / drive2.08
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
CARQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
NOQ1 14:4833Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 13:50537Punt7–0
NOQ1 11:05664Field goal7–0
NOQ1 8:0746Field goal10–0
CARQ1 6:15790Touchdown10–6
NOQ1 2:52727Punt10–6
CARQ2 14:513-3Punt10–6
NOQ2 13:321496Touchdown17–6
CARQ2 5:27481Touchdown17–13
NOQ2 3:471152Field goal20–13
NOQ3 15:00961Field goal23–13
CARQ3 10:471361Touchdown23–20
NOQ3 3:43322Turnover23–20
CARQ3 2:281263Touchdown23–27
NOQ4 12:32624Punt23–27
CARQ4 10:17525Punt23–27
NOQ4 7:061389Touchdown30–27
CARQ4 0:50927End of half30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees32/4535921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles11514.60
Mark Ingram9323.61
Pierre Thomas7182.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham8121290
Marques Colston56690
Darren Sproles57400
Robert Meachem45380
Lance Moore36300
Pierre Thomas33241
Mark Ingram22170
Devery Henderson11110
John Gilmore0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/3122421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams911512.81
Cam Newton7273.91
Jonathan Stewart6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith37791
Legedu Naanee48630
Jeremy Shockey37210
Greg Olsen35211
Brandon LaFell12200
Jonathan Stewart11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.03