Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutJacques CesaireDEKnee· DNP
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- DoubtfulAntonio GatesTEFoot· DNP
- ProbableNick HardwickCNeck· Full
- ProbableQuentin JammerCBIllness· Full
- ProbableVincent JacksonWRHamstring· Full
Broncos
- OutDemaryius ThomasWRFinger· DNP
- OutEddie RoyalWRGroin· DNP
- OutJulius ThomasTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBrian DawkinsSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDaniel FellsTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan WilhiteCBIllness· DNP
- ProbableChamp BaileyCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableKnowshon MorenoRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMarcus ThomasDTGroin· Full
- ProbableRahim MooreSIllness· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:31 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 8:37 | 4 | 33 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:44 | 2 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:58 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q1 0:45 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| LAC | Q2 11:10 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q2 7:19 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q2 5:29 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| DEN | Q2 1:47 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 16–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:02 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| DEN | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 14 | Punt | 23–10 |
| DEN | Q3 8:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 23–10 |
| LAC | Q3 6:59 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 23–10 |
| DEN | Q3 3:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 23–10 |
| LAC | Q3 2:48 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 26–10 |
| DEN | Q4 13:35 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 26–10 |
| LAC | Q4 11:33 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 26–10 |
| DEN | Q4 8:54 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 26–18 |
| LAC | Q4 6:35 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 26–18 |
| DEN | Q4 4:38 | 3 | 41 | Touchdown | 26–24 |
| LAC | Q4 3:19 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 29–24 |
| DEN | Q4 0:24 | 3 | 51 | End of half | 29–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 4/10 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 6/13 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 125 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Fells | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 3 | 40 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.