Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 4/10 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 6/13 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 125 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Fells | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 3 | 40 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.