2011 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

6·24

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.072
  • 39.0%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.088
  • 10.5%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +2.28CPOE-3.75
  • 33.1%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 53.6%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.44
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:50445Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:4533Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:14642Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 7:2800Opp touchdown3–0
MIAQ1 7:2333Opp touchdown3–7
MIAQ1 5:5237Punt3–7
NYJQ1 4:1035Punt3–7
MIAQ1 2:17877Field goal6–7
NYJQ2 13:3239Punt6–7
MIAQ2 12:02729Punt6–7
NYJQ2 6:541181Touchdown6–14
MIAQ2 1:14212End of half6–14
MIAQ3 15:00830Punt6–14
NYJQ3 11:311379Field goal6–17
MIAQ3 4:15516Punt6–17
NYJQ3 2:02423Punt6–17
MIAQ4 14:5136Punt6–17
NYJQ4 13:27450Touchdown6–24
MIAQ4 11:503-1Punt6–24
NYJQ4 10:32513Punt6–24
MIAQ4 7:11110Turnover6–24
NYJQ4 6:583-3Punt6–24
MIAQ4 5:19321Turnover6–24
NYJQ4 4:22634Punt6–24
MIAQ4 1:49711Turnover on downs6–24

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore16/3420402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush10717.10
Daniel Thomas15473.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall6131090
Brian Hartline36270
Davone Bess23210
Anthony Fasano12130
Daniel Thomas11120
Reggie Bush2270
Clyde Gates0300
Charles Clay0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez14/2520110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene21743.50
LaDainian Tomlinson7253.60
Mark Sanchez155.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes34631
Dustin Keller25510
Joe McKnight22290
LaDainian Tomlinson34210
Jeremy Kerley24180
Plaxico Burress14160
Shonn Greene1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.31