Closing spread
NYJ -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.072
- 39.0%Success rate40.3%
- +0.032EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.088
- 10.5%Explosive rate6.8%
- +2.28CPOE-3.75
- 33.1%Third-down rate35.5%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.63Points / drive1.44
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 16/34 | 204 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 71 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 13 | 109 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 14/25 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.31