2011 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Donovan McNabb

10·39

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.054EPA / play-0.110
  • 39.2%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -5.80CPOE-2.53
  • 38.8%Third-down rate32.9%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.37
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:30368Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 12:1735Punt0–7
CHIQ1 11:21726Punt0–7
MINQ1 7:352-5Safety0–9
CHIQ1 6:52757Touchdown0–16
MINQ1 3:391162Field goal3–16
CHIQ2 12:37636Punt3–16
MINQ2 9:3837Punt3–16
CHIQ2 8:04438Touchdown3–23
MINQ2 6:41868Missed field goal3–23
CHIQ2 1:55639Field goal3–26
MINQ2 0:28313End of half3–26
CHIQ3 15:00410Turnover3–26
MINQ3 12:47644Touchdown10–32
CHIQ3 10:2300Touchdown10–33
MINQ3 10:093-13Punt10–33
CHIQ3 8:19630Field goal10–36
MINQ3 5:443-8Punt10–36
CHIQ3 4:03729Field goal10–39
MINQ4 14:501369Turnover on downs10–39
CHIQ4 10:00521Punt10–39
MINQ4 6:42841Turnover on downs10–39
CHIQ4 4:06623End of half10–39

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/2417700
Christian Ponder9/179900
Joe Webb0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson12393.31
Christian Ponder188.00
Percy Harvin155.00
Toby Gerhart133.00
Joe Webb111.00
Lorenzo Booker1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin79780
Bernard Berrian57540
Visanthe Shiancoe57450
Michael Jenkins46450
Greg Camarillo13230
Kyle Rudolph23200
Toby Gerhart2270
Jimmy Kleinsasser1140
Devin Aromashodu0200
Adrian Peterson1100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/3126720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17875.10
Marion Barber11322.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Hester57911
Roy Williams34500
Johnny Knox24410
Matt Forte67360
Kellen Davis23270
Dane Sanzenbacher13131
Marion Barber1130
Matt Spaeth0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.97
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.40