Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play-0.110
- 39.2%Success rate39.3%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.80CPOE-2.53
- 38.8%Third-down rate32.9%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.60Points / drive1.37
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/24 | 177 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 9/17 | 99 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/31 | 267 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Hester | 5 | 7 | 91 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.97
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.40