2011 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

20·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.053EPA / play-0.058
  • 47.0%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.077EPA / dropback-0.048
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.076
  • 12.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.41CPOE-1.12
  • 42.0%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.48
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
PHIQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:55516Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 12:021272Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 6:5037Punt7–0
PHIQ1 4:551072Touchdown14–0
WASQ2 14:1569Punt14–0
PHIQ2 11:56969Field goal17–0
WASQ2 6:5810Turnover17–0
PHIQ2 6:40836Field goal20–0
WASQ2 2:27843Field goal20–3
PHIQ2 0:3011End of half20–3
WASQ3 15:00452Field goal20–6
PHIQ3 12:40464Turnover20–6
WASQ3 10:57437Punt20–6
PHIQ3 9:1044Turnover20–6
WASQ3 7:152-2Turnover20–6
PHIQ3 6:29739Turnover on downs20–6
WASQ3 3:0741Turnover20–6
PHIQ3 2:1038Punt20–6
WASQ4 14:501049Punt20–6
PHIQ4 10:50739Punt20–6
WASQ4 6:241175Touchdown20–13
PHIQ4 2:44421End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick18/3123711
Vince Young0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy281264.51
Mike Vick7547.70
Dion Lewis2105.00
Vince Young122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin571010
DeSean Jackson37460
Brent Celek49421
Jason Avant34280
LeSean McCoy24130
Steve Smith1170

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman9/2214304
John Beck8/1511700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain10222.20
John Beck2147.01
Roy Helu263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis611950
Jabar Gaffney210550
Santana Moss26380
Terrence Austin11320
Donte' Stallworth33300
Roy Helu24110
Ryan Torain0100
Chris Cooley11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.24