2011 · Week 6 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.053EPA / play-0.058
- 47.0%Success rate41.9%
- +0.077EPA / dropback-0.048
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.076
- 12.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.41CPOE-1.12
- 42.0%Third-down rate36.9%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.48
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 18/31 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 28 | 126 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 9/22 | 143 | 0 | 4 |
| John Beck | 8/15 | 117 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| John Beck | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 6 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.24