Closing spread
GB -10
Total
47
Model margin
-1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.230EPA / play-0.054
- 48.2%Success rate39.2%
- +0.405EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.026
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- +8.47CPOE-5.80
- 48.7%Third-down rate38.8%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.85Points / drive1.60
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/30 | 335 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 10 | 147 | 1 |
| James Jones | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 13/32 | 219 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 175 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 8 | 111 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.39