2011 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

33·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

GB -10

Total

47

Model margin

-1.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.230EPA / play-0.054
  • 48.2%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.405EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.026
  • 10.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +8.47CPOE-5.80
  • 48.7%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.60
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:00373Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 13:58991Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 8:34731Punt7–7
GBQ1 4:14528Punt7–7
MINQ1 1:1936Punt7–7
MINQ1 0:22750Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 11:431254Field goal10–14
MINQ2 4:551051Field goal10–17
GBQ2 0:55543Field goal13–17
GBQ3 15:00280Touchdown20–17
MINQ3 14:0935Punt20–17
GBQ3 12:48437Touchdown27–17
MINQ3 10:29620Turnover27–17
GBQ3 8:02820Field goal30–17
MINQ3 3:18325Turnover30–17
GBQ3 2:173-5Field goal33–17
MINQ3 0:18452Field goal33–20
GBQ4 13:4830Punt33–20
MINQ4 12:301188Touchdown33–27
GBQ4 7:49419Punt33–27
MINQ4 5:26934Punt33–27
GBQ4 2:30655End of half33–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3033530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks13755.80
Ryan Grant9293.20
Aaron Rodgers284.00
Randall Cobb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings7101471
James Jones44630
Jordy Nelson44520
James Starks34240
Andrew Quarless11210
Jermichael Finley22131
Randall Cobb1270
Donald Driver1160

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder13/3221922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson241757.31
Christian Ponder4317.80
Percy Harvin284.00
Toby Gerhart144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Jenkins381111
Visanthe Shiancoe48451
Greg Camarillo23350
Percy Harvin23150
Devin Aromashodu15130
Adrian Peterson1100
Lorenzo Booker0200
Kyle Rudolph0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.39