Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- ProbableJackie BattleRBNeck· Full
- ProbableLe'Ron McClainRBNeck· Full
Raiders
- OutChris JohnsonCBGroin· DNP
- OutJason CampbellQBCollarbone· DNP
- QuestionableChaz SchilensWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableChimdi ChekwaCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMarcel ReeceRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMichael HuffSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRock CartwrightRBCalf· DNP
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Hamstring· DNP
- ProbableSamson SateleCRibs· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MyersTERibs· Full
- ProbableRichard GordonTEHand· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:25 | 4 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:52 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:12 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:57 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:53 | 11 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 14–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:01 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 14–0 |
| KC | Q2 7:29 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 4:00 | 9 | 58 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| KC | Q2 0:55 | 4 | 33 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–0 |
| KC | Q3 14:30 | 8 | 34 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| LV | Q3 10:25 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 21–0 |
| KC | Q3 8:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–0 |
| LV | Q3 7:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–0 |
| KC | Q3 6:26 | 9 | 56 | Turnover | 21–0 |
| LV | Q3 1:41 | 6 | 43 | Opp touchdown | 28–0 |
| LV | Q4 14:20 | 10 | 30 | Turnover | 28–0 |
| KC | Q4 11:26 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 28–0 |
| LV | Q4 8:10 | 2 | 30 | Turnover | 28–0 |
| KC | Q4 7:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 28–0 |
| LV | Q4 5:39 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 28–0 |
| KC | Q4 4:39 | 8 | 33 | End of half | 28–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 15/30 | 161 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.