Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 15/30 | 161 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.