Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
49
Model margin
+4.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.053
- 45.1%Success rate47.0%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.077
- -0.111EPA / rush+0.010
- 9.0%Explosive rate12.1%
- +4.08CPOE+0.41
- 39.2%Third-down rate42.0%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.79Points / drive1.91
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/35 | 203 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent Robinson | 5 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 12 | 28 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 21/28 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 30 | 185 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 5 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.30