2011 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

7·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

49

Model margin

+4.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.053
  • 45.1%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.077
  • -0.111EPA / rush+0.010
  • 9.0%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +4.08CPOE+0.41
  • 39.2%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.91
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00974Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 10:41617Punt0–7
PHIQ1 7:11795Touchdown0–14
DALQ1 2:40328Turnover0–14
PHIQ1 1:131172Touchdown0–21
DALQ2 10:13525Punt0–21
PHIQ2 7:541283Field goal0–24
DALQ2 1:46624Punt0–24
DALQ3 15:00618Punt0–24
PHIQ3 12:231268Field goal0–27
DALQ3 5:5532Punt0–27
PHIQ3 5:031073Touchdown0–34
DALQ4 13:21276Touchdown7–34
PHIQ4 12:4459Punt7–34
DALQ4 9:001236Turnover on downs7–34
PHIQ4 6:07621Punt7–34
DALQ4 1:50841End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo18/3520311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray8749.30
Tony Romo199.00
Phillip Tanner122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laurent Robinson581031
Jason Witten412280
Dez Bryant35280
Miles Austin33270
Phillip Tanner22190
Martellus Bennett0100
DeMarco Murray13-20

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick21/2827920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy301856.22
Mike Vick7507.10
Ronnie Brown144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek79941
Jason Avant55740
Jeremy Maclin33541
DeSean Jackson36310
LeSean McCoy23150
Clay Harbor11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.30