2011 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Curtis Painter

10·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TEN -9

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.046
  • 39.3%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.170
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -4.66CPOE-1.91
  • 34.4%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 47.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.51
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
INDQ1 15:00838Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:11952Field goal0–3
INDQ1 7:01419Punt0–3
TENQ1 5:2831Punt0–3
INDQ1 3:2734Punt0–3
TENQ1 2:0036Punt0–3
INDQ1 0:2749Punt0–3
TENQ2 13:0534Punt0–3
INDQ2 12:0843Opp touchdown0–10
INDQ2 9:5237Punt0–10
TENQ2 8:35517Punt0–10
INDQ2 6:09424Punt0–10
TENQ2 4:59639Field goal0–13
INDQ2 2:31324Turnover0–13
TENQ2 1:50765Touchdown0–20
INDQ2 0:2212End of half0–20
TENQ3 15:0038Punt0–20
INDQ3 13:061258Field goal3–20
TENQ3 7:41935Punt3–20
INDQ3 2:131180Touchdown10–20
TENQ4 13:29626Punt10–20
INDQ4 9:38519Turnover10–20
TENQ4 8:18738Touchdown10–27
INDQ4 5:201177Turnover on downs10–27
TENQ4 2:37521Punt10–27
INDQ4 1:49735Turnover on downs10–27
TENQ4 0:2600End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Curtis Painter26/4925002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Painter77911.30
Delone Carter9465.10
Donald Brown10333.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Clark610770
Pierre Garcon715660
Reggie Wayne514610
Austin Collie57440
Donald Brown1110
Delone Carter2210

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck23/3322410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javon Ringer14604.30
Chris Johnson14342.40
Nate Washington133.01
Jamie Harper100.00
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damian Williams45600
Javon Ringer56420
Jared Cook22400
Nate Washington46341
Lavelle Hawkins35180
Chris Johnson35170
Daniel Graham0100
Marc Mariani0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.61