Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.046
- 39.3%Success rate39.2%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.170
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- -4.66CPOE-1.91
- 34.4%Third-down rate35.9%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.05Points / drive1.51
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 26/49 | 250 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 7 | 79 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Clark | 6 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 15 | 66 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 14 | 61 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 23/33 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Ringer | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Williams | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.61