Closing spread
NO -13.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/44 | 269 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 7 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.