Closing spread
NO -13.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutMark IngramRBHeel· DNP
- QuestionableDavid ThomasTEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableZach StriefTHamstring· Limited
- ProbableJonathan VilmaLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableJimmy GrahamTEAnkle· Full
- ProbableJohn GilmoreTENeck· Full
- ProbableJonathan CasillasLBKnee· Full
- ProbableSedrick EllisDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableTurk McBrideDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableWill HerringLBHamstring· Full
Rams
- OutDarell ScottDTConcussion· DNP
- OutJason SmithTConcussion· DNP
- OutSam BradfordQBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulDanario AlexanderWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableBrady PoppingaLBCalf· DNP
- QuestionableJustin KingCBGroin· Limited
- ProbableC.J. Ah YouDEWrist· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:42 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:51 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:50 | 6 | 27 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:03 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 1:53 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:13 | 13 | 68 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q2 8:32 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 4:32 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q2 2:05 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 1:36 | 2 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| NO | Q2 1:10 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:58 | 8 | 36 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| NO | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–17 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q3 11:44 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| NO | Q3 6:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LA | Q3 2:58 | 3 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 1:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–24 |
| NO | Q4 14:45 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| LA | Q4 10:00 | 6 | 45 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NO | Q4 6:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LA | Q4 6:05 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 14–30 |
| NO | Q4 3:01 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–31 |
| NO | Q4 2:51 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| LA | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/44 | 269 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 7 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.