Closing spread
SD -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutKris DielmanGConcussion· DNP
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- OutShaun PhillipsLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulMike TolbertRBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDarrell StuckeySGroin· Full
- QuestionableMalcom FloydWRHip· Full
- ProbableAntonio GatesTEFoot· Full
- ProbableJacob HesterRBFoot· Full
- ProbableMarcus McNeillTNeck· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBThumb· Full
- ProbableScott MruczkowskiCNeck· Full
Chiefs
- DNPDexter McClusterRBNot Injury Related
- ProbableKendrick LewisSAnkle· Limited
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:50 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 9:04 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 8:53 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:44 | 9 | 53 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 4:52 | 4 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 2:51 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 14:14 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 11:35 | 6 | 56 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 8:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 7:26 | 4 | 45 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 5:09 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 3:45 | 5 | 8 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 1:11 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–13 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q3 13:38 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| KC | Q3 8:10 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| LAC | Q3 7:46 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 9–13 |
| KC | Q3 6:01 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 9–13 |
| LAC | Q3 3:50 | 6 | 54 | Field goal | 12–13 |
| KC | Q3 1:45 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 12–20 |
| LAC | Q4 12:01 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| KC | Q4 7:11 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LAC | Q4 4:59 | 10 | 43 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| KC | Q4 0:48 | 4 | 39 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| LAC | OT | 3 | -2 | Punt | 20–20 |
| KC | OT | 13 | 74 | Field goal | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/32 | 261 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Baldwin | 5 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Keary Colbert | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.