Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutCassius VaughnCBHamstring· DNP
- OutVirgil GreenTENeck· DNP
- QuestionableQuinton CarterSConcussion· Limited
- ProbableOrlando FranklinTGroin· Limited
- ProbableWillis McGaheeRBHand· Limited
- ProbableJulius ThomasTEAnkle· Full
Raiders
- OutChris JohnsonCBGroin· DNP
- OutDarren McFaddenRBFoot· DNP
- OutJason CampbellQBCollarbone· DNP
- QuestionableChimdi ChekwaCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableMichael HuffSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Hamstring· DNP
- ProbableJohn HendersonDTBack· Limited
- ProbableSamson SateleCKnee· Limited
- ProbableChaz SchilensWRGroin· Full
- ProbableKevin BossTEConcussion· Full
- ProbableMarcel ReeceRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMatt GiordanoSNeck· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:43 | 5 | 49 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 7:35 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 4:58 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 3:17 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:11 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 14:48 | 5 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:20 | 4 | 24 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 10:42 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 7:23 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 4:39 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 2:46 | 4 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q2 1:30 | 10 | 11 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LV | Q3 10:48 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| DEN | Q3 6:41 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| LV | Q3 2:52 | 8 | 38 | Turnover | 23–24 |
| DEN | Q3 0:07 | 1 | 60 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 2 | 4 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:41 | 1 | 5 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:06 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 24–24 |
| DEN | Q4 12:51 | 8 | 16 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LV | Q4 8:15 | 4 | 19 | Opp touchdown | 31–24 |
| LV | Q4 5:53 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 31–24 |
| DEN | Q4 3:55 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 38–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:53 | 5 | 43 | Turnover | 38–24 |
| DEN | Q4 1:04 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 38–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 10/21 | 124 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 163 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Tim Tebow | 13 | 118 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.