Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 10/21 | 124 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 163 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Tim Tebow | 13 | 118 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.