Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutDanario AlexanderWRHamstring· DNP
- OutDarell ScottDTHead· DNP
- OutJason SmithTHead· DNP
- OutJerious NorwoodRBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableBrady PoppingaLBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableBryan KehlLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableSam BradfordQBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableTony WraggeCKnee· Full
Cardinals
- OutAnthony ShermanRBAnkle· DNP
- OutJoey PorterLBKnee· DNP
- OutKerry RhodesSFoot· DNP
- OutRob HouslerTEGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulKevin KolbQBToe· DNP
- QuestionableChris WellsRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJim DrayTEPectoral· Limited
- QuestionableLaRod Stephens-HowlingKRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableNick EasonDTAchilles· Limited
- QuestionableTodd HeapTEHamstring· Limited
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:30 | 6 | 28 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 10:51 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q1 4:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q1 3:04 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:22 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 13:13 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| ARI | Q2 7:02 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 6–3 |
| LA | Q2 3:26 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 63 | Field goal | 9–6 |
| LA | Q3 10:30 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 9–6 |
| ARI | Q3 8:11 | 2 | -2 | Safety | 11–6 |
| LA | Q3 7:24 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 13–6 |
| ARI | Q3 3:38 | 1 | 0 | Safety | 13–6 |
| LA | Q3 3:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–6 |
| ARI | Q3 2:12 | 9 | 53 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LA | Q4 13:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–6 |
| ARI | Q4 11:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LA | Q4 9:57 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 13–6 |
| ARI | Q4 8:34 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| LA | Q4 4:51 | 8 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 13–13 |
| ARI | Q4 1:41 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LA | Q4 0:51 | 5 | 35 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| LA | OT | 5 | 18 | Opp touchdown | 13–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 20/35 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Doucet | 6 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 12 | 43 | 1 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.