2011 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

17·10

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

42

Model margin

+3.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.094
  • 39.5%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.149
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -6.16CPOE-1.61
  • 30.8%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
  • 1.16Points / drive1.06
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
KCQ1 15:00715Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:42857Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 7:31632Punt7–0
DENQ1 3:56844Punt7–0
KCQ2 14:123-1Punt7–0
DENQ2 12:18734Field goal10–0
KCQ2 7:46517Punt10–0
DENQ2 5:1138Punt10–0
KCQ2 3:2376Punt10–0
DENQ2 1:37626Punt10–0
KCQ2 0:1613End of half10–0
DENQ3 15:00613Punt10–0
KCQ3 11:39865Touchdown10–7
DENQ3 8:1036Punt10–7
KCQ3 6:1936Punt10–7
DENQ3 4:35733Punt10–7
KCQ3 0:35736Punt10–7
DENQ4 12:05885Touchdown17–7
KCQ4 6:44821Turnover on downs17–7
DENQ4 4:5638Punt17–7
KCQ4 4:0843Turnover on downs17–7
DENQ4 3:2940Missed field goal17–7
KCQ4 1:55655Field goal17–10
DENQ4 0:0700End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow2/86910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lance Ball30963.20
Knowshon Moreno45213.00
Tim Tebow9434.81
Eddie Royal3196.30
Willis McGahee4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker13561
Matt Willis11130
Dante Rosario0100
Eddie Royal0200
Lance Ball0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel13/289310
Tyler Palko5/64700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jackie Battle9616.80
Dexter McCluster8455.60
Matt Cassel2168.00
Tyler Palko188.00
Thomas Jones441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dexter McCluster68480
Steve Breaston46330
Leonard Pope35180
Dwayne Bowe27170
Jon Baldwin15150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.47