Closing spread
KC -3
Total
42
Model margin
+3.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.094
- 39.5%Success rate38.8%
- -0.100EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- -6.16CPOE-1.61
- 30.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
- 1.16Points / drive1.06
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 2/8 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Ball | 30 | 96 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 1 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 13/28 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 5/6 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.47