Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.110
- 44.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.101EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.23CPOE-2.53
- 35.2%Third-down rate32.9%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.98Points / drive1.37
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 35/66 | 338 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 8 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 9 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 20 | 81 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 5 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 9/19 | 123 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 6 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+0.99