2011 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

13·37

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.110
  • 44.2%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.101EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.117
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.23CPOE-2.53
  • 35.2%Third-down rate32.9%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.37
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
DETQ1 15:00637Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 12:10417Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 10:29538Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 8:18722Field goal0–10
DETQ1 4:42512Punt0–10
CHIQ1 2:35735Field goal0–13
DETQ2 14:5130Opp touchdown0–20
DETQ2 14:1530Punt0–20
CHIQ2 12:5510Turnover0–20
DETQ2 12:5039Field goal3–20
CHIQ2 12:0136Punt3–20
DETQ2 9:5539Punt3–20
CHIQ2 8:2136Punt3–20
DETQ2 6:481756Field goal6–20
CHIQ2 1:23755Missed field goal6–20
DETQ2 0:0600End of half6–20
CHIQ3 15:0030Punt6–20
DETQ3 13:5822Opp touchdown6–27
DETQ3 13:16422Opp touchdown6–34
DETQ3 11:24621Punt6–34
CHIQ3 8:51547Field goal6–37
DETQ3 6:18960Turnover on downs6–37
CHIQ3 3:5752Punt6–37
DETQ3 0:42746Turnover6–37
CHIQ4 13:2931Punt6–37
DETQ4 10:59734Turnover6–37
CHIQ4 8:4433Punt6–37
DETQ4 7:00856Touchdown13–37
CHIQ4 5:00722End of half13–37

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford35/6633814

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris10444.40
Kevin Smith4194.80
Nate Burleson11010.00
Stefan Logan155.00
Matthew Stafford210.50
Keiland Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson89830
Titus Young911830
Calvin Johnson720810
Brandon Pettigrew59380
Tony Scheffler38371
Kevin Smith22100
Maurice Morris1260
Will Heller0200
Rashied Davis0100
Maurice Stovall0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler9/1912300
Matt Forte0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte18643.61
Marion Barber13272.10
Jay Cutler4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett66810
Sam Hurd11210
Johnny Knox12180
Matt Forte1530
Roy Williams0200
Matt Spaeth0100
Kellen Davis0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+0.99