Closing spread
GB -12.5
Total
49
Model margin
+5.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.230
- 39.2%Success rate48.2%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.405
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.114
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- -5.80CPOE+8.47
- 38.8%Third-down rate48.7%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.60Points / drive2.85
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 16/34 | 190 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/30 | 250 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2/2 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 5 | 63 | 2 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.80