2011 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

7·45

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -12.5

Total

49

Model margin

+5.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.230
  • 39.2%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.405
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.114
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -5.80CPOE+8.47
  • 38.8%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.85
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
MINQ1 15:0038Opp touchdown0–7
MINQ1 13:42614Punt0–7
GBQ1 9:551170Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 5:02961Missed field goal0–14
GBQ1 1:14856Field goal0–17
MINQ2 12:04528Turnover0–17
GBQ2 9:0438Punt0–17
MINQ2 6:53845Punt0–17
GBQ2 2:47717Punt0–17
MINQ2 0:4439Punt0–17
GBQ2 0:1900End of half0–17
GBQ3 15:00964Touchdown0–24
MINQ3 10:4545Punt0–24
MINQ3 9:10214Touchdown7–24
GBQ3 8:41550Touchdown7–31
MINQ3 6:21932Turnover on downs7–31
GBQ3 1:291334Touchdown7–38
MINQ4 10:5930Punt7–38
GBQ4 10:30961Touchdown7–45
MINQ4 4:271050Turnover on downs7–45
GBQ4 1:3400End of half7–45

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder16/3419001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson14513.61
Percy Harvin3186.00
Christian Ponder2178.50
Lorenzo Booker2126.00
Joe Webb166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin68520
Michael Jenkins34490
Kyle Rudolph33370
Visanthe Shiancoe14330
Lorenzo Booker1390
Joe Webb1190
Greg Camarillo0300
Devin Aromashodu0600
Adrian Peterson0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3025040
Matt Flynn2/23800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks13634.80
Aaron Rodgers6213.50
Ryan Grant860.80
Matt Flynn400.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermichael Finley34670
Jordy Nelson55632
Donald Driver34360
Randall Cobb33360
Greg Jennings35321
Ryan Grant11170
James Starks34110
James Jones1190
Andrew Quarless1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.80