2011 · Week 10

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

20·27

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge map49ers
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.009
  • 44.0%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.091
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.53CPOE-0.45
  • 38.3%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.87
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SF
NYGQ1 15:001375Field goal3–0
SFQ1 6:271167Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 0:251273Field goal6–3
SFQ2 9:05751Field goal6–6
NYGQ2 5:0000Field goal6–6
SFQ2 5:00632Field goal6–9
NYGQ2 1:4920Turnover6–9
SFQ2 1:28419Turnover6–9
NYGQ2 0:3427End of half6–9
SFQ3 15:00970Field goal6–12
NYGQ3 11:143-3Punt6–12
SFQ3 9:4133Punt6–12
NYGQ3 8:031089Touchdown13–12
SFQ3 2:2534Punt13–12
NYGQ3 1:1736Punt13–12
SFQ3 0:21445Touchdown13–20
NYGQ4 13:2223Turnover13–26
SFQ4 12:26117Touchdown13–27
NYGQ4 12:21875Touchdown20–27
SFQ4 8:3730Punt20–27
NYGQ4 6:351563Turnover on downs20–27
SFQ4 0:3400End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning26/4031122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs18553.10
D.J. Ware9343.80
Eli Manning242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz611840
Mario Manningham610771
Hakeem Nicks24411
Jake Ballard34350
D.J. Ware56340
Bear Pascoe23230
Brandon Jacobs22170

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/3024211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendall Hunter6406.71
Alex Smith6274.50
Anthony Dixon2105.00
Frank Gore600.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker67690
Braylon Edwards36470
Vernon Davis34401
Ted Ginn34390
Michael Crabtree14210
Kyle Williams11140
Frank Gore1180
Kendall Hunter1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.36