Closing spread
SD -7.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutChris JohnsonCBGroin· DNP
- OutDarren McFaddenRBFoot· DNP
- OutDeMarcus Van DykeCBHamstring· DNP
- OutJason CampbellQBCollarbone· DNP
- QuestionableChimdi ChekwaCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableChinedum NdukweSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableKhalif BarnesTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMichael HuffSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMichael MitchellSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableSamson SateleCKnee· DNP
- QuestionableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Hamstring· DNP
- ProbableRock CartwrightRBCalf· Limited
- ProbableCarson PalmerQBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableMarcel ReeceRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMatt GiordanoSNeck· Full
Chargers
- OutKris DielmanGConcussion· DNP
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- DoubtfulMalcom FloydWRHip· DNP
- DoubtfulShaun PhillipsLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableDonald ButlerLBIllness· DNP
- ProbableSteve GregorySThigh· Limited
- ProbableAntwan BarnesLBCalf· Full
- ProbableNa'il DiggsLBKnee· Full
- ProbableRichard GoodmanWRGroin· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBGroin· Full
- ProbableTakeo SpikesLBBiceps· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:49 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 10:40 | 5 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 7:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 7:06 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 0:41 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 14:27 | 6 | 70 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 9:07 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 4:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 2:22 | 2 | 56 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:51 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 11:48 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q3 9:01 | 7 | 37 | Missed field goal | 24–10 |
| LV | Q3 4:56 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q3 2:06 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 8 | 57 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| LAC | Q4 11:27 | 10 | 7 | Punt | 24–17 |
| LV | Q4 8:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–17 |
| LAC | Q4 6:48 | 9 | 47 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| LV | Q4 3:21 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 24–17 |
| LAC | Q4 1:04 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 24–17 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.