2011 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

7·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SF -10

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.009
  • 41.4%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.091
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -5.82CPOE-0.45
  • 32.0%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.87
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:56958Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 10:1128Turnover0–0
SFQ1 9:2737Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 8:1334Punt0–0
SFQ1 6:58859Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 3:1014Turnover0–3
SFQ1 3:0531Field goal0–6
ARIQ1 2:063-5Punt0–6
SFQ2 14:471049Missed field goal0–6
ARIQ2 9:04513Punt0–6
SFQ2 7:021275Field goal0–9
ARIQ2 0:56424Punt0–9
SFQ3 15:001384Touchdown0–16
ARIQ3 7:12218Turnover0–16
SFQ3 6:07437Touchdown0–23
ARIQ3 4:14554Turnover0–23
SFQ3 2:54412Punt0–23
SFQ3 1:0855Turnover0–23
ARIQ4 14:5334Punt0–23
SFQ4 14:0664Punt0–23
ARIQ4 11:14669Touchdown7–23
SFQ4 8:38514Punt7–23
ARIQ4 4:581232Turnover on downs7–23
SFQ4 3:27527End of half7–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton6/199903
Richard Bartel8/166410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chester Taylor13434.00
Chris Wells8334.10
Richard Bartel199.00
LaRod Stephens-Howling144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts39510
Early Doucet610500
Larry Fitzgerald39411
DeMarco Sampson1290
Chester Taylor0300
Chris Wells0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3826721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore24883.70
Anthony Dixon7324.60
Kendall Hunter11272.50
Alex Smith7172.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree7101200
Vernon Davis510671
Kyle Williams55541
Kendall Hunter11150
Frank Gore1260
Braylon Edwards0400
Delanie Walker0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.96