Closing spread
SF -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.009
- 41.4%Success rate40.8%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.091
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- -5.82CPOE-0.45
- 32.0%Third-down rate29.6%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.38Points / drive1.87
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 6/19 | 99 | 0 | 3 |
| Richard Bartel | 8/16 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Richard Bartel | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 6 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| DeMarco Sampson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/38 | 267 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 24 | 88 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 7 | 10 | 120 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 10 | 67 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 5 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.96