2011 · Week 11 · Division
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
43
Model margin
+0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.058
- 45.1%Success rate41.9%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.048
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.08CPOE-1.12
- 39.2%Third-down rate36.9%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 1.79Points / drive1.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/37 | 292 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 25 | 73 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 3 | 3 | 85 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 4 | 11 | 34 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jesse Holley | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 25/38 | 292 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 7 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| Fred Davis | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46