2011 · Week 11 · Division

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

27·24

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

43

Model margin

+0.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.058
  • 45.1%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.048
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.076
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +4.08CPOE-1.12
  • 39.2%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.48
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:00945Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:0737Turnover0–0
DALQ1 8:39324Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 7:4457Punt7–0
DALQ1 5:5038Punt7–0
WASQ1 4:0632Punt7–0
DALQ1 3:05418Punt7–0
WASQ1 1:0531Punt7–0
DALQ2 14:37824Field goal10–0
WASQ2 10:23419Punt10–0
DALQ2 8:0434Punt10–0
WASQ2 7:23632Touchdown10–7
DALQ2 3:59511Punt10–7
WASQ2 1:41638Touchdown10–14
DALQ2 0:1400End of half10–14
WASQ3 15:00755Field goal10–17
DALQ3 11:40512Punt10–17
WASQ3 8:2433Missed field goal10–17
DALQ3 6:071461Touchdown17–17
WASQ4 14:43733Punt17–17
DALQ4 11:10788Touchdown24–17
WASQ4 8:4810Turnover24–17
DALQ4 8:40518Punt24–17
WASQ4 5:351389Touchdown24–24
DALQ4 0:1400End of half24–24
WASOT1053Missed field goal24–24
DALOT642Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/3729230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray25732.90
Felix Jones5183.60
Tony Romo2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten33851
Dez Bryant38681
Laurent Robinson411341
DeMarco Murray67320
Martellus Bennett33310
Jesse Holley11170
Kevin Ogletree12120
John Phillips1190
Felix Jones1140

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman25/3829221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roy Helu8354.40
Rex Grossman3103.31
Tashard Choice671.20
Anthony Armstrong155.00
Ryan Torain540.80
Donte' Stallworth1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney7101151
Fred Davis67520
Donte' Stallworth46511
David Anderson13230
Logan Paulsen22170
Roy Helu2230
Tashard Choice1120
Ryan Torain1320
Anthony Armstrong0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.46