2011 · Week 11

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

13·17

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.089
  • 40.3%Success rate39.5%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.088EPA / rush-0.078
  • 6.8%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -3.75CPOE-6.16
  • 35.5%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.16
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DEN
DENQ1 15:001059Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ1 9:4930Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:03515Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 5:08935Missed field goal0–3
DENQ1 1:0921Turnover0–3
NYJQ1 0:24632Field goal3–3
DENQ2 12:0431Punt3–3
NYJQ2 9:3831Punt3–3
DENQ2 8:0030Punt3–3
NYJQ2 6:27724Punt3–3
DENQ2 2:1239Punt3–3
NYJQ2 0:59537Missed field goal3–3
NYJQ3 15:00974Touchdown10–3
DENQ3 10:57634Punt10–3
NYJQ3 7:4034Punt10–3
DENQ3 6:2130Punt10–3
NYJQ3 5:1934Opp touchdown10–10
NYJQ3 4:2500Punt10–10
DENQ3 4:153-1Punt10–10
NYJQ3 3:14415Punt10–10
DENQ3 1:2938Punt10–10
NYJQ4 14:481042Field goal13–10
DENQ4 9:1438Punt13–10
NYJQ4 7:2638Punt13–10
DENQ4 5:541295Touchdown13–17
NYJQ4 0:58742End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez24/4025201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe McKnight16593.70
Bilal Powell7111.60
Shonn Greene3103.30
Mark Sanchez100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress49640
Joe McKnight67620
Dustin Keller58400
Santonio Holmes49390
Patrick Turner34360
Bilal Powell1170
Shonn Greene1140

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow9/2010400
Eric Decker0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Tebow8688.51
Willis McGahee12181.50
Lance Ball5183.60
Eddie Royal11010.00
Jeremiah Johnson3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas26370
Lance Ball23260
Dante Rosario11180
Eddie Royal34150
Jeremiah Johnson1180
Daniel Fells0100
Eric Decker0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92