Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.089
- 40.3%Success rate39.5%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- -3.75CPOE-6.16
- 35.5%Third-down rate30.8%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.44Points / drive1.16
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 24/40 | 252 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe McKnight | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 9/20 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 12 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92