Closing spread
NYG -6
Total
45
Model margin
+2.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.053EPA / play+0.050
- 47.0%Success rate44.0%
- +0.077EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.143
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.41CPOE+1.53
- 42.0%Third-down rate38.3%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.91Points / drive1.84
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 23/36 | 258 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 23 | 113 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 5 | 12 | 75 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/35 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 10 | 128 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.21