2011 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Vince Young

17·10

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -6

Total

45

Model margin

+2.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.053EPA / play+0.050
  • 47.0%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.077EPA / dropback+0.164
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.143
  • 12.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.41CPOE+1.53
  • 42.0%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.84
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
PHIQ1 15:00732Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:4033Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:4020Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 8:52316Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 7:2436Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:11619Punt0–0
PHIQ1 2:2531Punt0–0
NYGQ1 1:343-1Punt0–0
PHIQ2 15:00856Field goal3–0
NYGQ2 11:3139Punt3–0
PHIQ2 9:3622Turnover3–0
NYGQ2 8:493-12Punt3–0
PHIQ2 6:45930Punt3–0
NYGQ2 2:2632Punt9–0
PHIQ2 1:30114Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 1:22750Field goal10–3
NYGQ3 15:00610Punt10–3
PHIQ3 11:18425Punt10–3
NYGQ3 8:4439Punt10–3
PHIQ3 7:33558Turnover10–3
NYGQ3 5:00625Punt10–3
PHIQ3 2:25624Punt10–3
NYGQ4 13:17573Touchdown10–10
PHIQ4 11:361880Touchdown17–10
NYGQ4 2:45675Turnover17–10
PHIQ4 1:17267End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young23/3625823

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy231134.90
Chad Hall2115.50
Ronnie Brown166.00
Vince Young650.80
Dion Lewis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson68880
Riley Cooper512751
Brent Celek66600
Steve Smith11141
Jason Avant12130
Clay Harbor1260
LeSean McCoy3420

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning18/3526411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs12211.80
Da'Rel Scott2115.50
D.J. Ware3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz6101281
Hakeem Nicks37690
D.J. Ware23170
Ramses Barden11130
Jake Ballard17130
Brandon Jacobs34110
Da'Rel Scott1190
Mario Manningham1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.21