Closing spread
STL -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 14/24 | 148 | 1 | 2 |
| Sidney Rice | 1/1 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 27 | 88 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.