Closing spread
STL -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- OutJames CarpenterTKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableAtari BigbySHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTony HargroveDTHamstring· Limited
- ProbableTarvaris JacksonQBPectoral· Limited
- ProbableCameron MorrahTEToe· Full
- ProbableDavid VoboraLBHead· Full
- ProbableDoug BaldwinWRHead· Full
- ProbableKam ChancellorSHead· Full
- ProbableSidney RiceWRHead· Full
Rams
- OutCarnell WilliamsRBCalf· DNP
- OutJason SmithTHead· DNP
- DoubtfulDanario AlexanderWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableJustin KingCBHead· DNP
- QuestionableRodger SaffoldTHead· Full
- ProbableBrandon GibsonWRGroin· Full
- ProbableBryan KehlLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableDarian StewartSNeck· Full
- ProbableEugene SimsDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableJerious NorwoodRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJosh HullLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableLance KendricksTEFoot· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 55 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:11 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:25 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:57 | 2 | 27 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 9:15 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 6:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 1:44 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:39 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 11:08 | 6 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:36 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 7:30 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 4:34 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 2:26 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q3 12:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LA | Q3 8:35 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q3 8:12 | 5 | 25 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LA | Q3 5:58 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q3 3:14 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q4 14:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q4 13:55 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q4 10:01 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q4 7:49 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q4 5:57 | 2 | -9 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q4 5:18 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| LA | Q4 4:21 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| SEA | Q4 2:20 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 24–7 |
| LA | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 14/24 | 148 | 1 | 2 |
| Sidney Rice | 1/1 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 27 | 88 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.