2011 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

23·20

Rams

St. Louis

QB Sam Bradford

Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay

Closing spread

STL -1

Total

40

Model margin

+3.6est.

STL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

STL lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–STL
LAQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:5256Opp touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 9:15313Turnover0–7
LAQ1 7:4247Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 6:1331Punt0–7
LAQ1 4:20311Punt0–7
ARIQ1 2:55570Field goal3–7
LAQ1 0:3646Punt3–7
ARIQ2 13:59741Punt3–7
LAQ2 10:32519Punt3–7
ARIQ2 7:50821Punt3–7
LAQ2 3:521068Field goal3–10
ARIQ2 0:0300End of half3–10
ARIQ3 15:00876Field goal6–10
LAQ3 9:3832Turnover6–10
ARIQ3 8:43628Touchdown13–10
LAQ3 5:54420Opp touchdown20–10
LAQ3 2:56749Field goal20–13
ARIQ4 14:4910Turnover20–13
LAQ4 14:34415Missed field goal20–13
ARIQ4 13:0235Punt20–13
LAQ4 10:5833Punt20–13
ARIQ4 9:592-2Turnover20–13
LAQ4 9:11343Touchdown20–20
ARIQ4 7:46771Field goal23–20
LAQ4 4:0939Punt23–20
ARIQ4 3:14745End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton12/2311402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells272288.41
John Skelton3186.00
Alfonso Smith3124.00
LaRod Stephens-Howling294.50
Chester Taylor210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald39550
Jeff King23170
Early Doucet11140
LaRod Stephens-Howling11140
Andre Roberts25140
Chester Taylor22-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.59

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.