Closing spread
STL -1
Total
40
Model margin
+3.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. STL are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 12/23 | 114 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 27 | 228 | 8.4 | 1 |
| John Skelton | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.