Closing spread
SD -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- ProbableBrian DawkinsSAnkle· Full
- ProbableCassius VaughnCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableDaniel FellsTEConcussion· Full
- ProbableDavid BrutonSAchilles· Full
- ProbableJulius ThomasTEAnkle· Full
- ProbableWillis McGaheeRBHand· Full
Chargers
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- OutMalcom FloydWRHip· DNP
- OutMarcus McNeillTNeck· DNP
- DoubtfulLouis VasquezGAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulTyronne GreenGHand· DNP
- QuestionableMarcus GilchristCBHamstring· Full
- QuestionableShaun PhillipsLBFoot· Full
- ProbableAntonio GatesTENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableBront BirdLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJacques CesaireDEKnee· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 11:34 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 7:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:40 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:45 | 16 | 86 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 7:58 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:08 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 5:08 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 2:19 | 5 | -10 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 1:27 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:55 | 2 | 17 | End of half | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 13:18 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 9:30 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q3 7:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 6:41 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 0:33 | 6 | 50 | Missed field goal | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q4 12:32 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q4 8:32 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q4 5:27 | 8 | 68 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LAC | Q4 1:34 | 5 | 21 | End of half | 13–13 |
| DEN | OT | 4 | 25 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LAC | OT | 4 | 17 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DEN | OT | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LAC | OT | 10 | 40 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| DEN | OT | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 9/18 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 23 | 117 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 22 | 67 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 3 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.