Closing spread
GB -4
Total
55
Model margin
+0.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.230EPA / play+0.036
- 48.2%Success rate44.2%
- +0.405EPA / dropback+0.101
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.104
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +8.47CPOE+1.23
- 48.7%Third-down rate35.2%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.85Points / drive1.98
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/33 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Saine | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 3 | 4 | 94 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Saine | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/45 | 276 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 9 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 8 | 49 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.44