2011 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·15

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

55

Model margin

+0.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.230EPA / play+0.036
  • 48.2%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.405EPA / dropback+0.101
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.104
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +8.47CPOE+1.23
  • 48.7%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.98
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:00936Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:50535Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:081265Punt0–0
GBQ1 2:1239Punt0–0
DETQ1 0:21851Punt0–0
GBQ2 10:541241Punt0–0
DETQ2 5:4320Turnover0–0
GBQ2 5:3331Touchdown7–0
DETQ2 4:51850Missed field goal7–0
GBQ2 1:0240Punt7–0
DETQ2 0:30216End of half7–0
GBQ3 15:001290Touchdown14–0
DETQ3 9:06637Turnover20–0
GBQ3 5:36165Touchdown21–0
DETQ3 5:2525Turnover21–0
GBQ3 4:51516Field goal24–0
DETQ3 1:10772Touchdown24–8
GBQ4 13:11540Punt24–8
DETQ4 9:3632Punt24–8
GBQ4 8:25953Field goal27–8
DETQ4 2:431175Touchdown27–15
GBQ4 0:1100End of half27–15

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3330720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant6203.30
James Starks4194.80
Brandon Saine2105.00
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones34941
Greg Jennings55741
Jermichael Finley25380
Jordy Nelson46260
Randall Cobb24210
Ryan Grant33200
Donald Driver12150
Brandon Saine1190
Andrew Quarless0100
James Starks0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford32/4527613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris7395.60
Kevin Smith7365.10
Matthew Stafford4317.80
Keiland Williams2199.51
Nate Burleson11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Maurice Morris910810
Calvin Johnson48491
Nate Burleson57390
Keiland Williams44330
Brandon Pettigrew48270
Kevin Smith33210
Tony Scheffler22130
Titus Young13130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.44