2011 · Week 12

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

24·49

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

51

Model margin

+6.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSaints
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.198
  • 44.0%Success rate51.4%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.305
  • -0.143EPA / rush+0.014
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +1.53CPOE+7.27
  • 38.3%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.96
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NO are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NO
NOQ1 15:001290Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 9:50972Turnover0–0
NOQ1 4:271080Touchdown0–7
NYGQ2 14:52946Field goal3–7
NOQ2 9:30516Punt3–7
NYGQ2 7:29622Punt3–7
NOQ2 5:21780Touchdown3–14
NYGQ2 2:21928Punt3–14
NOQ2 1:09688Touchdown3–21
NYGQ2 0:35332Missed field goal3–21
NYGQ3 15:00862Touchdown10–21
NOQ3 10:43978Touchdown10–28
NYGQ3 5:4839Turnover10–28
NOQ3 4:26229Touchdown10–35
NYGQ3 4:13513Turnover on downs10–35
NOQ3 1:3430Punt10–35
NYGQ3 1:11384Touchdown17–35
NOQ4 14:501068Touchdown17–42
NYGQ4 10:411371Touchdown24–42
NOQ4 5:1248Turnover on downs24–42
NYGQ4 2:4145Turnover on downs24–42
NOQ4 2:03340Touchdown24–49
NYGQ4 1:02321End of half24–49

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning33/4740621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs13463.51
D.J. Ware5234.60
Eli Manning144.00
Da'Rel Scott200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz9121572
Hakeem Nicks712870
Jake Ballard35470
D.J. Ware89450
Ramses Barden34380
Devin Thomas11120
Bear Pascoe11100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/3836340
Chase Daniel1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram13806.21
Pierre Thomas8637.91
Darren Sproles8546.80
Drew Brees188.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham58842
Marques Colston36780
Devery Henderson56670
Lance Moore57542
Pierre Thomas33470
Darren Sproles25280
Mark Ingram23140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.1%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.87