Closing spread
NO -7
Total
51
Model margin
+6.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play+0.198
- 44.0%Success rate51.4%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.305
- -0.143EPA / rush+0.014
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.8%
- +1.53CPOE+7.27
- 38.3%Third-down rate58.6%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.84Points / drive2.96
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NO are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 33/47 | 406 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 9 | 12 | 157 | 2 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 7 | 12 | 87 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 8 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/38 | 363 | 4 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 8 | 84 | 2 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 5 | 7 | 54 | 2 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.1%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.87