Closing spread
GB -7
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.230EPA / play+0.050
- 48.2%Success rate44.0%
- +0.405EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.143
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +8.47CPOE+1.53
- 48.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 2.85Points / drive1.84
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/46 | 369 | 4 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Saine | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 14 | 94 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 4 | 94 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 6 | 11 | 87 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 4 | 34 | 2 |
| Brandon Saine | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/40 | 347 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 7 | 9 | 119 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 7 | 12 | 88 | 2 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 67 | 1 |
| Jake Ballard | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin-0.62