Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 13/25 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 22 | 100 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.