Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDarren McFaddenRBFoot· DNP
- OutDenarius MooreWRFoot· DNP
- OutJacoby FordWRFoot· DNP
- OutJarvis MossDEHamstring· DNP
- OutJason CampbellQBCollarbone· DNP
- OutTaiwan JonesRBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableKamerion WimbleyLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Hamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTommy KellyDTToe· DNP
- QuestionableTrevor ScottDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableLamarr HoustonDEKnee· Limited
- ProbableMichael HuffSAnkle· Limited
- ProbableMichael MitchellSAnkle· Limited
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableChris JohnsonCBHamstring· Full
Dolphins
- DoubtfulVernon CareyGAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableYeremiah BellSFoot· Limited
- ProbableDan CarpenterKright Groin· Full
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:26 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 10:11 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 8:00 | 13 | 65 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 1:30 | 12 | 22 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q2 12:03 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 8:24 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q2 6:19 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 2:00 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q2 1:13 | 4 | 20 | End of half | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| LV | Q3 13:56 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–20 |
| MIA | Q3 12:32 | 13 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| LV | Q3 5:01 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–34 |
| LV | Q3 4:41 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 0–34 |
| MIA | Q3 2:49 | 7 | 47 | Punt | 0–34 |
| LV | Q4 14:40 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–34 |
| MIA | Q4 13:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–34 |
| LV | Q4 11:39 | 10 | 96 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| MIA | Q4 7:51 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–34 |
| LV | Q4 5:47 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| MIA | Q4 3:26 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 14–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 13/25 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 22 | 100 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.