Closing spread
SF -14
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutJosh HullLBHamstring· DNP
- OutMark LeVoirTPectoral· DNP
- QuestionableChris LongDEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDarian StewartSHead· Limited
- QuestionableJustin BannanDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableSam BradfordQBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableDonnie JonesPAnkle· Limited
- ProbableBrit MillerRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableChris ChamberlainLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableDominique CurryWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableJustin KingCBAnkle· Full
49ers
- QuestionableBraylon EdwardsWRKnee· DNP
- ProbableFrank GoreRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAdam SnyderGHamstring· Full
- ProbableAnthony DavisTAnkle· Full
- ProbableBruce MillerRBConcussion· Full
- ProbableChris CulliverCBShoulder· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:57 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:36 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:54 | 5 | 40 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 2:28 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 11:40 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| SF | Q2 10:53 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 8:39 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–6 |
| SF | Q2 5:33 | 10 | 50 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| LA | Q2 1:41 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–9 |
| SF | Q2 0:57 | 7 | 17 | End of half | 0–9 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 44 | Turnover | 0–9 |
| SF | Q3 13:00 | 4 | 88 | Touchdown | 0–16 |
| LA | Q3 11:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–16 |
| SF | Q3 9:43 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 0–19 |
| LA | Q3 5:41 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–19 |
| SF | Q3 4:28 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–19 |
| LA | Q3 0:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–19 |
| SF | Q4 14:22 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–26 |
| LA | Q4 12:42 | 11 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 0–26 |
| SF | Q4 7:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–26 |
| LA | Q4 6:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–26 |
| SF | Q4 4:26 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–26 |
| LA | Q4 2:04 | 4 | 16 | End of half | 0–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/23 | 274 | 2 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 2 | 66 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.