Closing spread
SF -14
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/23 | 274 | 2 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 2 | 66 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.