2011 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

28·34

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -10

Total

48

Model margin

+4.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.036
  • 39.2%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.101
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.104
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -5.80CPOE+1.23
  • 38.8%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.98
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:00419Punt0–6
MINQ1 13:021-10Opp touchdown0–7
DETQ1 12:5600Opp touchdown0–7
MINQ1 12:56330Turnover0–7
DETQ1 11:28348Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 9:453-2Punt0–14
DETQ1 7:46434Touchdown0–21
MINQ1 5:541065Touchdown7–21
DETQ1 1:51725Punt7–21
MINQ2 13:1821Opp touchdown7–28
MINQ2 12:331060Touchdown14–28
DETQ2 7:3632Punt14–28
MINQ2 5:5636Punt14–28
DETQ2 4:58419Punt14–28
MINQ2 2:2910Turnover14–28
DETQ2 2:2034Field goal14–31
MINQ2 1:05522End of half14–31
MINQ3 15:00543Turnover14–31
DETQ3 13:20933Punt14–31
MINQ3 8:02988Touchdown21–31
DETQ3 4:211476Field goal21–34
MINQ4 12:171260Touchdown28–34
DETQ4 7:54620Punt28–34
MINQ4 3:321863Turnover28–34

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder11/2111523
Joe Webb12/238410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Webb710915.61
Toby Gerhart19904.70
Percy Harvin44010.00
Lorenzo Booker3175.70
Christian Ponder2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin1015691
Devin Aromashodu410470
Visanthe Shiancoe37331
Greg Camarillo25310
Toby Gerhart33191
Kyle Rudolph1400

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/2922720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Keiland Williams12433.60
Maurice Morris4133.30
Calvin Johnson11111.00
Matthew Stafford242.00
Nate Burleson111.00
Aaron Brown100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Titus Young47871
Brandon Pettigrew67571
Calvin Johnson34290
Nate Burleson36250
Keiland Williams22170
Aaron Brown1190
Maurice Morris1130
Tony Scheffler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.31