Closing spread
DET -10
Total
48
Model margin
+4.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.036
- 39.2%Success rate44.2%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.101
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.104
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.80CPOE+1.23
- 38.8%Third-down rate35.2%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.60Points / drive1.98
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 11/21 | 115 | 2 | 3 |
| Joe Webb | 12/23 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | 7 | 109 | 15.6 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 19 | 90 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 10 | 15 | 69 | 1 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 4 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/29 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keiland Williams | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titus Young | 4 | 7 | 87 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 6 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31