2011 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

37·34

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.047
  • 44.0%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.111
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.53CPOE+4.08
  • 38.3%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.79
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:55726Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:212-8Safety2–0
NYGQ1 9:42666Field goal5–0
DALQ1 7:07880Touchdown5–7
NYGQ1 2:491172Touchdown12–7
DALQ2 12:451275Touchdown12–14
NYGQ2 6:261037Punt12–14
DALQ2 1:3815Turnover12–14
NYGQ2 1:2536Field goal15–14
DALQ2 1:03549Field goal15–17
NYGQ2 0:1500End of half15–17
NYGQ3 15:0038Punt15–17
DALQ3 12:531041Field goal15–20
NYGQ3 7:42997Touchdown22–20
DALQ3 4:3059Punt22–20
NYGQ3 1:34518Punt22–20
DALQ4 14:14485Touchdown22–27
NYGQ4 12:431159Turnover22–27
DALQ4 6:35249Touchdown22–34
NYGQ4 5:41975Touchdown29–34
DALQ4 3:1435Punt29–34
NYGQ4 2:12748Touchdown37–34
DALQ4 0:46351Missed field goal37–34
NYGQ4 0:0100End of half37–34

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/4740021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs191015.32
Ahmad Bradshaw8121.50
D.J. Ware2-1-0.50
Eli Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks8111630
Victor Cruz68740
Mario Manningham28621
Jake Ballard46521
D.J. Ware34190
Travis Beckum12110
Ahmad Bradshaw1170
Brandon Jacobs0100
Bear Pascoe0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo21/3132140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones161066.60
DeMarco Murray5255.00
Miles Austin155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laurent Robinson451371
Miles Austin47631
Dez Bryant12501
Felix Jones67310
Jason Witten35120
John Phillips11121
DeMarco Murray1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.39