Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play+0.047
- 44.0%Success rate45.1%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.53CPOE+4.08
- 38.3%Third-down rate39.2%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.79
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/47 | 400 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 8 | 11 | 163 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 2 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Jake Ballard | 4 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/31 | 321 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 16 | 106 | 6.6 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent Robinson | 4 | 5 | 137 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39