2011 · Week 14 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

19·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+2.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.009EPA / play-0.077
  • 40.8%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.45CPOE-5.82
  • 29.6%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.38
  • 1.0%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
SFQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:393-5Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:55100Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 4:3938Punt3–0
SFQ1 3:07429Punt3–0
ARIQ1 0:5432Punt3–0
SFQ2 15:003-1Field goal6–0
ARIQ2 14:02430Turnover6–0
SFQ2 11:50730Missed field goal6–6
ARIQ2 7:21160Touchdown6–7
SFQ2 7:10969Field goal9–7
ARIQ2 1:5832Turnover9–7
SFQ2 1:10512Field goal12–7
ARIQ3 15:004-3Punt18–7
SFQ3 12:33137Touchdown19–7
ARIQ3 12:24765Touchdown19–14
SFQ3 9:0432Punt19–14
ARIQ3 8:06423Punt19–14
SFQ3 5:5238Punt19–14
ARIQ3 4:06640Turnover19–14
SFQ3 1:2145Punt19–14
ARIQ3 0:16678Touchdown19–21
SFQ4 11:5038Punt19–21
ARIQ4 10:03620Punt19–21
SFQ4 5:3734Punt19–21
ARIQ4 3:5938Punt19–21
SFQ4 2:51414Turnover on downs19–21
ARIQ4 1:5700End of half19–21

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith18/3717500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore10727.21
Kendall Hunter8202.50
Kyle Williams177.00
Alex Smith1-3-3.00
Delanie Walker1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree712630
Kyle Williams46420
Vernon Davis13320
Kendall Hunter23190
Ted Ginn26140
Braylon Edwards0200
Frank Gore0100
Delanie Walker0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton19/2828232
Kevin Kolb1/1200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells15271.80
John Skelton6254.20
LaRod Stephens-Howling231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald791491
Early Doucet34731
LaRod Stephens-Howling22220
Jeff King34160
Chester Taylor22130
Andre Roberts2581
Chris Wells1130
Rob Housler0100
DeMarco Sampson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

6.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.60