Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.077
- 40.8%Success rate41.4%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.45CPOE-5.82
- 29.6%Third-down rate32.0%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.38
- 1.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 18/37 | 175 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 72 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 7 | 12 | 63 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 19/28 | 282 | 3 | 2 |
| Kevin Kolb | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 15 | 27 | 1.8 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 9 | 149 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 3 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarco Sampson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
6.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.60