Closing spread
SEA -9
Total
38
Model margin
+2.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 21/32 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 115 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 8 | 93 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.