2011 · Week 15

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

42·20

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

53.5

Model margin

-2.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapVikings
  • +0.198EPA / play-0.054
  • 51.4%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.305EPA / dropback-0.073
  • +0.014EPA / rush-0.026
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +7.27CPOE-5.80
  • 58.6%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.96Points / drive1.60
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. MIN are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5MIN @ NO23–13MIN
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–MIN
NOQ1 15:00328Turnover0–0
MINQ1 13:4030Field goal0–3
NOQ1 12:2034Punt0–3
MINQ1 11:21622Punt0–3
NOQ1 8:271194Touchdown7–3
MINQ1 2:51415Punt7–3
NOQ1 0:30315Turnover7–3
MINQ2 14:223-10Field goal7–6
NOQ2 13:13756Touchdown14–6
MINQ2 10:04661Touchdown14–13
NOQ2 6:591376Touchdown21–13
MINQ2 1:3332Punt21–13
NOQ2 0:27236End of half21–13
MINQ3 15:0032Punt21–13
NOQ3 13:59444Touchdown28–13
MINQ3 12:1533Punt28–13
NOQ3 11:14353Touchdown35–13
MINQ3 10:1843Punt35–13
NOQ3 8:2622107Touchdown42–13
MINQ4 12:5038Punt42–13
NOQ4 11:36940Missed field goal42–13
MINQ4 7:25660Touchdown42–20
NOQ4 5:12620Turnover on downs42–20
MINQ4 1:551141Turnover42–20

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees32/4041250
Chase Daniel0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory18744.10
Pierre Thomas8445.51
Darren Sproles8334.10
Drew Brees242.00
Robert Meachem144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Moore56912
Marques Colston89910
Darren Sproles56791
Jimmy Graham710701
Pierre Thomas22410
Robert Meachem24220
Devery Henderson1240
John Gilmore1121

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder14/3112021
Joe Webb0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson10606.00
Christian Ponder33411.30
Toby Gerhart2126.00
Joe Webb200.00
Percy Harvin1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Toby Gerhart44462
Devin Aromashodu27290
Kyle Rudolph22150
Emmanuel Arceneaux12100
Percy Harvin3780
Lorenzo Booker1170
Greg Camarillo1350
Jimmy Kleinsasser0100
Visanthe Shiancoe0100
Adrian Peterson0100
Joe Webb0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.6%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.42