Closing spread
NO -7
Total
53.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.198EPA / play-0.054
- 51.4%Success rate39.2%
- +0.305EPA / dropback-0.073
- +0.014EPA / rush-0.026
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- +7.27CPOE-5.80
- 58.6%Third-down rate38.8%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.96Points / drive1.60
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. MIN are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/40 | 412 | 5 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 5 | 6 | 91 | 2 |
| Marques Colston | 8 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 14/31 | 120 | 2 | 1 |
| Joe Webb | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 4 | 4 | 46 | 2 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Arceneaux | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.42